Hey team, I hope everyone’s doing well. This month, I’ve got some exciting updates to share from Brian Buffini’s midyear bold predictions. He presented some fascinating data and slides that I think you’ll find valuable. I’ve included screenshots of a few highlights you’ll want to look at.
As always, real estate is local, and I’ll touch on the Salt Lake City market specifically in a moment, but these numbers are national. The key takeaway from his presentation is that we’re essentially “going back to the future.” The market is returning to the way things looked in 2019.
For example, active inventory in 2019, before COVID, was about 1.24 million listings. After COVID hit, inventory dropped sharply—real estate became the new toilet paper—and bottomed out around 692,000. Since then, it has been climbing back toward normal levels.
Monthly supply tells a similar story. A balanced market is typically six months of inventory. In June 2019, we were at 4.4 months, but then inventory fell dramatically during COVID. As of June 2025, we’re back to roughly the same levels as 2019, indicating we’re moving toward balance again.
He also reviewed market types: buyer’s, neutral, and seller’s markets. In places like Florida and Texas, where prices spiked quickly, markets have started to cool. Here in Salt Lake City, the market is classified as neutral, though in practice it still feels like a seller’s market when homes are priced correctly.
Existing home sales volume was another eye-opener. In 2019, sales totaled 5.34 million units. Even during COVID, sales remained strong, but in the last three years, numbers have dropped to about 4 million annually. That’s the lowest since the mid-1990s, despite the U.S. now having 85 million more people.
What hasn’t returned to 2019 levels are home prices. In July 2019, the average home price was $315,000. It rose steadily through COVID, jumping from $385,000 to $449,000 at the peak. Over the past three years, though, prices have flattened. Nationally, values are holding steady rather than continuing to climb.
Other indicators reflect this “back to the future” theme as well. Days on market averaged 27 in 2019, dipped lower during COVID, and are now back to about 27. It feels slower to sellers, but overall, the market is functioning normally. Interest rates tell a similar story: around 3.75% pre-COVID, dropping into the twos with stimulus, then spiking as the Fed hit the brakes. For the past three years, they’ve hovered around 7%.
Looking ahead, the most interesting projection is what happens if rates drop from 7% to 6%. That shift would make 5.5 million additional households eligible to buy. Of those, 1.6 million are renters, and overall it could add about 550,000 home sales—a 12% increase—bringing annual sales from roughly 4 million up to 4.5 million.
Those are the main takeaways. Thanks for watching, and if you have any questions, please reach out. Talk to you soon!
