Happy holidays everybody. I have some good information from you. Just watched, uh, Brian Buffini’s, uh, 2025 Bold Predictions. And, uh, kind of shocking at some of the demographic changes that went down this year for 2024, and then what he’s kind of predicting for 2025.
Also, Dr. Lawrence Yoon, um, Chief Economist for NAR, was on the call as well, and so he’s got a little bit of material.
So I want to jump right in. And share this stuff with you guys. I think it’s going to help you, uh, when you’re talking to clients as well.
And just overall be aware of kind of what’s going on in the industry, and, uh, and how it affects, uh, all of us.
So, let’s jump in. First of all, medium-aged homebuyers, all-time high went from 49 years to 56 years. Bam! That fast.
The median age of first-time homebuyers also jumped up from 35 to 38 years. Uh, this is a biggie, uh, 73% of buyers don’t have children under the age of 18.
Because of the price points and everything else, we’re looking at an older demographic. They don’t have kids. Uh, they’ve left the nest, uh, three out of four people, uh, not, not an issue.
Next up, 26% are still cash transactions. you Uh, apparently a lot of people got a lot of cash and they’re not afraid to plunk it down.
That’s not good news for me on the lending front, but hey, it is what it is, right? If you can get a cash buyer, do it.
Multi-generational, we’re going to see this trend continue where homes are going to be for, you know, younger folks and, um, the grandparents or the parents when you’re kind of squeezed in the middle of them.
So this is going to be a trend that continues. First-time homebuyers dropped only one out of four, lowest all-time. And again, I think that speaks to the affordability.
Nothing earth-shattering there, but good to know. Um, home searches. Uh, buyers typically view about seven homes. Two of them were online only.
And again, this does come from NAR, so kind of interesting to know about that and how people are looking for stuff.
63 was the average age of a typical home seller, which is a record high. That’s kind of mind-blowing. 63 is the average.
The average, or the typical age, right? So, that’s kind of crazy. A lot of people that are selling are obviously downsizing, moving into, you know, retirement homes or nursing homes, apparently.
So empty nesters on the sales side. 77% of the people that were selling homes also did not have children under the age of 18.
73% on the buying side, 73% on the selling side. kids under 18 are not really being part of real estate.
Or being a big deal to folks. My gut says that demographics a little bit different in Utah, but nationally, that’s kind of the average.
So, interesting to be aware of that. Um, next up, uh, the median number of years since people have sold a home has jumped all the way up to 10 years.
Before, you know, um, it was, it was about six years, um, 2000 to 2008. And actually in the 90s, it was only like every four years people were moving.
So, I think that’s a function also of the COVID money. Bye. But, um, that number has escalated. That’s starting to settle a little bit now, though.
I think that’s starting to turn the other direction. Um, next up, only 6% of all sales with all the technology and everything else, FSBOs are at an all-time low.
Folks are not leveraging the technology. They’re, they need experts. They need professionals like we are to get it done. So, that’s a, a cheery thought.
Know that that’s, uh, still going that direction. 66% of the sellers used an agent that was referred to. So, 2 out of 3 people are still getting business through referrals.
They’re not, they’re not just going to the web and, um, and going that route. Uh, so, it’s great if you buy leads and that kind of thing.
But, still, 2 out of 3 people are, are getting referred to an agent to buy or sell a home. Uh, 87% of the sellers, they would use the agent again.
Uh, that just depends on you keeping in touch with them. You know, it’s the out of sight, out of mind.
So, it’s important to do all the things, the calls, the notes, the pop buys, as the client appreciation party. They do work when we stay in front of our clients.
So, here’s what Dr. Yoon, who, again, he’s the chief economist of NAR, what he had to say. Uh, this is, this is mind blowing, right?
We, last year, was the lowest year, 2023, with just over 4 million in sales for the country, was the lowest number of sales since 1995.
This year, we’re going to finish up with pretty much the same number, about 4.1 million nationally. So two years. Two years in a row of, uh, the same amount of sales as we did in 1995.
Crazy. Next up, though, the inventory is, is going up, and I know we’re all aware of this in the last quarter.
Things are starting to ease a bit because life goes on. People get married, they get divorced. Kids are, kids are, you know, people having kids, they got, you know, homes, they need bigger homes, et cetera.
So we’ve got more choices for buyers. That trend’s going to continue. Um, This is going back and showing you on the slide that even though we sold the same amount of homes as we did for two years in a row since 1995, our population guys are 70 million more people in the country.
And this, you know, it can’t continue. We need more inventory but we’re going to see a breakout to the upside is the point.
That’s the point of the slide. There’s 70 million more people now. We can’t for a third year in a row sell the same number of houses that we did in the year 1995.
Four million. It’s. It’s going to increase. So regarding increasing, uh, Lawrence Hugh Narr, they’re going with, uh, existing home sales going up 9% next year, 11% for new home sales, uh, pricing, you know, only going up 2% as far as inflation.
And he’s looking for interest rates to be around 6%. Uh, again, that’s the chief economist of Narr. Um, and then finally Brian, Brian Buffini, he’s calling for about four and a half million.
So he’s calling for about a 10% increase. . . . Their numbers are kind of similar. Lawrence was nine, you know, Brian’s a 10.
He has calling for about 300,000 less members of Nar. Something like 700,000 people in 2024 that remembers when Nar didn’t even sell home.
So he’s looking for Nar membership to, to decline greatly. Uh, interest rates is third bullet. He’s calling for five and a half to 6.2%.
So, you know, we’re, we’re looking for things to stay around 6%, maybe to the high fives for, for next year.
We’re not looking . . . not going to go to the forest. That’s just not going to happen. He’s also talking about teams are going to keep going up and, um, shocker.
The gap between those who have and those that have not is, is going to continue to widen. So, hey, I’ve thrown a lot at you.
If you’ve survived this far, thanks for watching. But, uh, these are some good things that you can take away and share with your clients.
If you have questions about this or you want to chat more, please reach out to me. Um, if I don’t talk to you, I hope you have a fantastic holiday season.
Again, thanks for watching and we’ll talk to you soon. . . Take care. Thank you.
